Posted by: FSPRetail , 20 May 2011
As discussed in a previous SnapShop Blog Waterstone’s Vs. Amazon, HMV has sold its Waterstone’s book store to Russian investor Alexander Mamut for a reported £53 million. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAILERS, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES, FUTURE OF RETAILING
Posted by: FSPRetail , 17 May 2011
Best practice in shopping centre valuation has changed. Valuations should now reflect the long term sustainability of passing rents. The willingness of retailers to pay the passing rent is the key to the valuation. This fundamental change follows the 2008 financial crisis. The BCSC Asset Pricing Guide issued last week gives little emphasis to lease terms and much to rent sustainability. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAIL PROPERTY, RETAIL RENTS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 17 May 2011
Mary Portas has been appointed by Department for Business, Innovation and Skills to carry out a review aimed at halting the "decline of the high street" in England. That the decline is real is well attested by shop vacancy rates and the achieved levels of rents in many “secondary” towns. The solution will be more fundamental than improving the level of customer service. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES, FUTURE OF RETAILING
Posted by: FSPRetail , 26 April 2011
Denis Brogan’s study of political revolutions concluded that there’s no such thing as a free lunch, change always comes at a cost. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAIL STATISTICS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 24 March 2011
The shopping centre research budget was sufficient for only 120 shopper interviews. The management decided to supplement the number by using in-house staff to conduct further interviews. A year later, those involved are still bruised by the experience, “How do you get shoppers to stop to be interviewed?” “It took so much time that we neglected our other work.” And the results were insufficiently robust to be trusted, so already new research is to be commissioned.
read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, SHOPPING CENTRE RESEARCH
Posted by: FSPRetail , 21 March 2011
This week Retail Week reported that Asda chief executive Andy Clarke believes “the future of retail is local, and supermarkets need to be clear about the role they play in local communities.” read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAILERS, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES, SHOPPERS, SHOP LOCAL
Posted by: FSPRetail , 17 March 2011
The outlook for town centre retailing is much worse, and the required action is more urgent, than is suggested in the BCSC and Lunson Mitchenall report on the Shopping Centre development pipeline. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAILERS, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES, FUTURE OF RETAILING, SHOPPERS
Posted by: Hpratley , 10 March 2011
Positive sales seen at the beginning on 2011 have slowed as retailers saw their worst February sales for nearly a year, according to a report by the BRC. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAILERS, STATISTICS, SOCIAL COMMENTARY, RETAIL STATISTICS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 23 February 2011
Response to the Financial Times article Asda warns over consumer confidence : It is one thing to reference the Gfk index of Consumer Confidence, as does SnapShop each month, or for Asda to calculate the spending power of the average family, apparently down £9 a week in January 2011 compared to 12 months previous. It is quite another to observe behavioural changes that indicate a loss of consumer confidence. Amongst the changes to which Asda has drawn attention are: read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAILERS, GENERAL, SHOPPERS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 25 January 2011
Wild newspaper claims that Christmas trading was the worst since records began in 1988 were based on a misreading of the ONS Press Release. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: Hpratley , 14 January 2011
Comment read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAILERS, E-TAILING, SHOPPERS, CHRISTMAS, RETAIL STATISTICS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 16 December 2010
In Hans Christian Andersen’s short tale, the cost of the fraud perpetrated by the two weavers was borne by the Emperor and his courtiers and the crowd enjoyed the spectacle. The cost of the current economic experiment, to cut public sector employment to enable the growth of private sector jobs, will be carried by the ordinary, mostly the less well paid, citizen. It makes a much more gritty and gripping story. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 18 November 2010
Customers or Tenants - Is the Cake worth the Candle? read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 22 October 2010
Although globally the standard approach to setting retail rents, turnover rents have become significant in the UK only during the last 20 years. When Capital Shopping Centres (CSC), opened Thurrock Lakeside in 1990 with turnover rents it marked a sharp change from the prevailing norm. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 16 September 2010
FSP is relocating its office, to have more space for growth. The essentials will be moved and the rest will be discarded. It’s a useful paradigm for thinking about the effect on the retail property market of another forced change, the current banking crisis. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 22 July 2010
Economic turmoil historically gives rise to costs and benefits. The costs tend to be more visible, immediate and to attract the principal attention. The benefits, more subtle and apparent only in the longer term, attract less comment. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 17 June 2010
In business, the only reason to spend money is to increase profit. The expenditure is either to reduce costs or to improve revenues. The most successful FSP work yields returns that are many multiples of its cost. Internal FSP analysis shows a clear and direct link between client returns and the depth of FSP involvement, the strength of the client relationship. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 22 April 2010
Unless landlords take the initiative, town centre retailing will die out within a generation in a large number of middle sized UK towns. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, FUTURE OF RETAILING
Posted by: FSPRetail , 26 March 2010
To the Royal Institution, founded in 1799, to witness the retail property industry discussing secondary shopping centres in a suitably historic setting. There was much to marvel at, not least that the group on whom shopping centres depend was entirely unrecognised. Shoppers, who ultimately pay the rent, were effectively ignored. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 23 February 2010
The proportion of UK multiple retailers trading unsustainably has increased from around 23% last year to 28% this year. Furthermore, the location of the stores of “at risk” retailers, and the reasons for their financial stress, are now different. Retailers are categorised as “at risk” if the ratio of gross profit on sales to the cost of labour and depreciation is below parity. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES, RETAIL ADMINISTRATORS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 26 January 2010
…but are they all of equal value? In shopping centres and retail parks, recruiting particular tenants within an explicit retail mix strategy creates a more robust rent roll than simply taking the highest, or any, bidder. Without a tenant mix policy, the retail composition of the centre or park is determined by the judgements and vagaries of individual retailers. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES, RETAIL PROPERTY, REGENERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Posted by: FSPRetail , 08 January 2010
Christmas 2009 sales are relevant to the past, not the future. Sales over the Christmas period, as so far reported, seem to be the last act of consumer defiance of the economic circumstance. The first reports of Christmas sales performance show like-for-like sales increases that average between 5% and 10% across all merchandise categories. Such a performance does not mean the good times are back but relief that last year was not worse. The outlook for the coming year is at best anaemic. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, CHRISTMAS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 17 December 2009
“Do as you would be done by” is an ethical code that has its roots in a wide range of world cultures, present in the philosophies of ancient India, Greece, Judea and China. It is based on the understanding of the human condition expressed by John Donne as, “No man is an island, entire of itself …- any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind; and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee." We are indeed social animals. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 19 November 2009
Do retail Like-for-Like (LfL) figures include or exclude internet sales? Not a trick question but a matter of some importance to understanding what is happening in UK retail. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 22 October 2009
Opinion about the financial outlook for UK retailers is divided. The evidence however is more unanimous: read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 10 September 2009
In a period of change, the vital task is, amongst the threats and opportunities, to distinguish the important from the transitory. Is the abolition of the Needs Test really the most important issue in urban regeneration? Perhaps leadership rather than facilitation is what is needed. If performance is king, the evidence suggests that the UK already has too much retail space. Retailers generally are not over-trading. FSP research indicates that the greatest opportunities lie in remodelling and making better use of existing space, not in creating yet more. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 10 August 2009
Sharing turnover information has always been a sensitive subject for retailers, and as a result landlords are often unable to measure the effectiveness of their shopping centre or retail park by the most obvious means – sales. Entrant numbers are produced as a Key Performance Indicator but if an increase doesn’t convert to sales it is largely meaningless. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW
Posted by: FSPRetail , 24 July 2009
“Socially acceptable insanity” has been defined as repeating an unsuccessful pattern of behaviour and expecting it this time to be successful. We keep on doing the same things, even when we know they don’t work, and are surprised by their repeated failure. If things aren’t working, it’s madness to keep repeating them. It’s time to make a change. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, REGENERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Posted by: FSPRetail , 24 June 2009
The Retail News Index (RNI) has risen strongly since its seasonal nadir in January. The RNI, an index based on the balance between positive and negative retail news stories, is now back to levels not seen since 2006, outside the pre-Christmas period. There is a clear seasonal pattern to the RNI which typically rises during the Autumn before falling back. The index for January 2009 was the lowest since January 2005, so the rise this year is particularly marked. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, STATISTICS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 21 May 2009
The FT headline last week, “ONS admits to getting its sums wrong with overstated retail sales” initially alarmed me. There has been some grumbling that retail sales as reported by ONS have been too optimistic. Were the critics right after all? read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, STATISTICS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 28 April 2009
The Credit Crunch (despised phrase that it already is) could be the very black cloud that gives our town centres a silver lining. In best management speak, town and shopping centre managers should not see the dearth of available spend as a threat, but rather an opportunity to do something new. At FSP, we have previously bemoaned the cloning of our towns, with one being interchangeable with the next as the conglomerates take over and the small businesses are squeezed out. Now it seems these same small businesses, with their attention to detail and strength of customer service, are experiencing a renaissance, as more and more people find the benefit in shopping locally. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, SHOP LOCAL
Posted by: FSPRetail , 26 March 2009
Retailers have begun to treat landlords as any other supplier, by telling them how much they are prepared to pay for their product. Proponents of this approach have already included Stylo, Aurora and House of Fraser. Although the catalyst may be the current economic situation, the change is likely to endure and the pioneers will be joined by others. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAIL RENTS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 02 February 2009
FSP has identified over 100 retailers in the UK across all merchandise categories that are profitable and expanding. These are the companies best positioned to benefit from the opportunities created by the current economic conditions. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, HOT 100
Posted by: FSPRetail , 01 January 2009
The prospects for retail property in 2008 range from a disaster scenario, much loved by journalists in search of a good story, to an expectation that the bottom of the market will be established. What is certain is that active asset management will once more be prized. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES
Posted by: FSPRetail , 21 December 2008
Assessing the reliability of retail rental income, always important for asset managers and property investors, is now critical. FSP has developed a Rental Risk Index (RRI) that quantifies the quality of rental income and is using its RRI to reduce rental risk particularly in shopping centres. The premium attached to rents in a shopping centre lies in the centre’s ability to control its environment and tenant adjacencies, unlike the situation in most high streets. The current pressure to take on any retailer without regard for tenant fit, simply to maintain the immediate income stream, will erode this premium. It is not true that any retailer who will pay the rent is good enough. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAIL RENTS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 23 October 2008
Will the historic distrust between landlord and tenant be permanently affected by the current economic crisis? The antipathy has survived previous downturns, so why should this one be any different? read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAIL RENTS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 18 September 2008
The performance of the UK economy has been sound throughout the first half of 2008. Why therefore has the reported performance of so many retailers been poor? If they have done badly when the economy was good, what will happen when, as expected, the economy turns down? read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAILERS, E-TAILING, STATISTICS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 25 July 2008
“Proposed Revisions to PPS6” is not a headline to set the blood racing. However, the latest offering from Hazel Blears, the Communities Secretary, should provoke outrage from all who care for the viability of UK town centres. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES
Posted by: FSPRetail , 25 May 2008
Have UK retail conditions got easier or more difficult in the last 12 months? read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAIL ADMINISTRATORS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 24 April 2008
Delays in five retail developments have recently been announced. In Chester, Dumfries, Newbury, Newport and Portsmouth, respected and experienced developers have put major projects on hold. In each case, rising costs of construction, land acquisition and market conditions have been blamed. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAIL PROPERTY
Posted by: FSPRetail , 20 March 2008
Imagination is more important than knowledge read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, RETAIL PROPERTY
Posted by: FSPRetail , 22 February 2008
Analogies between business and warfare can be over-done. Perhaps in the realm of intelligence there is a parallel. Both business leaders and generals need to adapt strategy in the light of “events”. But how do they know which events, what changes are significant? The military, it has been said, is always preparing to fight the last war, not the present. Too often, intelligence systems fail to monitor what is strategically most significant. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, FUTURE OF RETAILING, STATISTICS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 21 February 2008
The words “ethics” and “morality” are derived respectively from the Greek and Latin words for “customs”. In a society of increasing diversity, without universally respected traditions and heritage, whose ethics are relevant? read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, ETHICS
Posted by: FSPRetail , 19 January 2008
The prospects for retail property in 2008 range from a disaster scenario, much loved by journalists in search of a good story, to an expectation that the bottom of the market will be established. What is certain is that active asset management will once more be prized. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, TOWN/SHOPPING CENTRES
Posted by: FSPRetail , 19 December 2007
FSP has conducted interviews with thousands of UK shoppers in the last few months. Fewer than 10% are dedicated on-line shoppers; more than 40% have not used and do not plan to use the internet for any of their shopping. read more…
Tags: GEOFF'S VIEW, E-TAILING